Saturday, January 29, 2011

Weekly Market Commentary

Economic growth continues to gain traction
Newly released figures showed U.S. domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the final quarter of 2010 and by 2.9% over the year. It was the largest yearly increase since 2005. The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for 2011 global growth slightly to 4.3% and for U.S. growth to 3% from 2.3%.

Heightened consumer spending was the big driver of U.S. growth in the final quarter. And there was more good news as consumer confidence rose in both the U.S. and Canada. This is generally positive for equities because consumers are more likely to loosen their wallets, driving business sales and profits.

Many of the world’s stock markets declined as what appeared to be shaping up to be a good week was stalled on Friday. Positive reaction to economic news and corporate earnings gave way to nervousness over developments in the Arab world. However, Canada’s benchmark index posted a five-day gain.

Emerging markets were particularly hard hit at week’s end as investors fled riskier securities amid social unrest in Egypt and other Arab states.
Wall Street lost ground, but crossed a couple of psychological barriers during the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 12000 and the S&P 500 crossed 1300 for the first time since mid-2008, but only in intra-day trading. Both indexes failed to close above those levels, and a weekly loss brought the Dow’s eight-week winning streak to an end. The Canadian market didn’t break through any barriers, but its advance for the week included the best one-day percentage gain in two months.

Corporate profits continue to impress as the earnings season got into full swing in the U.S. About 70% of companies are beating estimates so far. Canadian companies also reported strong earnings. However, companies that disappointed, such as Ford Motor and Amazon.com, were punished by investors.

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates, indicating rates would likely remain low for some time. The Fed said it would go ahead with the second round of quantitative easing (“QE2”), the economic stimulus program to buy back massive amounts of U.S. treasury assets. Markets welcomed the news that stimulus would continue.

For other news of the week:
http://www.investorsgroup.com/consult/terry.pitz/english/cnf_frameset.asp?pg=/English/prodServices/marketCom/default.shtml

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Weekly Market Commentary

Global concerns overshadow positive economic news

Financial markets were mixed over the week as encouraging economic news from the U.S. and Europe conflicted with fears that China would take action to rein in its economy.

News that China’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected y-o-y rate of 9.8% in the fourth quarter (and 10.3% in 2010) led to fears of further moves by China to curb growth and stem inflation. Materials stocks were among the most affected as concerns surfaced that China’s commodities appetite would wane.

Good news for two key U.S. economic trouble spots helped counter China concerns and could support financial markets going forward. Existing home sales surged 12.3% in December, spurring optimism that the worst could be over for the housing market. Meanwhile, new applications for jobless benefits posted their biggest decline in nearly a year, providing some good news on the employment front.

There was also good news in Europe as the outlook for Germany’s economy brightened, helping send the euro to a two-month high against the U.S. dollar.

Corporate earnings continued to send positive signals, with three-quarters of U.S. companies reporting so far exceeding expectations, according to Bloomberg data. The technology sector saw big earnings gains from companies such as Apple and Google, although tech stocks were mixed over the week. Blue-chip stocks outperformed, supported by strong earnings from companies such as General Electric.

The Bank of Canada announced it would leave its key borrowing rate unchanged at 1%. It continues to predict modest economic growth for Canada in its latest quarterly forecast: 2.4% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012. This was a slight uptick from earlier forecasts. It raised its forecast for U.S. growth in 2011 to 3.3%, up from 2.3%. central bank warned a high Canadian dollar and poor productivity are preventing Canada from making the most of the global economic recovery.

However, later in the week, Canadian November retail sales showed surprising strength. The 1.3% rise was the biggest since March 2010.

For other news this week go to ... 
http://www.investorsgroup.com/consult/terry.pitz/english/cnf_frameset.asp?pg=/English/prodServices/marketCom/default.shtml

Cheers!